Does Sunak have time to save the Tories?

First, it seems certain that the Russians will launch a major attack on the Ukraine. The Ukrainians’ resolve appears to be unbroken. But will they have all the kit that they need, and what about the West’s resolve? As for the Russians, will they be able to throw hundreds of thousands of troops into the meat-grinder apparently indefinitely or will some units turn on their officers and then set off to walk home?

Here at home, we await a lesser offensive. After the Budget, Sunak and his team will be setting out their message. Rishi Sunak has had a good week. He has no difficulty in sounding Prime Ministerial, but we do not yet know the answer to two vital and related questions. Has he enough time to turn round his Party’s fortunes and how solid is that large Labour lead? It is broad, certainly, but is it deep?

The Tory leader may be winning golden opinions in important sections of the Beltway, but does that communicate itself to the general public? Last week, the PM was given a rousing reception by the Cross-bench peers: the elite of the elite. Does that reaction gradually percolate outwards, or is it irrelevant? These are questions that opinion pollsters and other political obsessives ponder incessantly, without coming to decisive conclusions.

Their Cross-bench Lordships were rightly impressed by the PM”s handling of Northern Ireland. It appears that he will win over the Democratic Unionists, but if that does happen, we should pay them a tribute. The DUPs have not just been obstructive for the sake of obstruction. They were aware that many of their enemies wanted to use the EU as a means of weakening the Union. But all they wanted was to remain part of the UK on an equal footing.

Most Ulster Unionists have usually economised on charm. They have been up against Irish Republicans who could call on the services of poets and balladeers and who have long mastered the art of sentimentalising homicide and terrorism. Most senior DUPs have carried the coffins of comrades who were murdered in the defence of democracy. This helps to explain why some DUPs can be difficult to deal with. Even so, they deserve respect. Jeffrey Donaldson is becoming a statesman.

As regards mainland electoral politics, there are two imminent issues. The first is the small boats in the Channel. The Government has committed itself to action. It had better deliver. Then there is the Budget. The commentators are almost unanimous. As part of any strategy for growth, the Chancellor ought to do something about corporation tax and/or investment allowances for business. It is hard to believe that Hunt is not listening. Obviously, he wants to extirpate any remaining traces of Trussonomics but it should surely be possible to reassure the City and enthuse the wider business sector.

In response to all this, there is no complacency in Labour ranks. They claim that they are refusing to be carried away by the polls, and they mean it. Back in November, a Labour MP – I wish i could remember who – said that if they did not win the next Election, he would chuck in politics and become a professional tiddlywinks player. Whatever the outcome, there is going to be a great deal of hard pounding between now and the real polling day.

In that, Rishi Sunak has one disadvantage. Too many of his MPs seem set on making trouble for him, or getting themselves into trouble. Then there is Boris. He ought to have brought a lot of discredit on himself last week, by seeming to oppose a better deal than the one which he had negotiated. In his interests, he should have tried to claim a share in the legacy. But it appears that he cannot bear the thought of Sunak winning any credit for anything. He may be bent on becoming a tedious, peevish malevolence: a resurrection of Ted Heath.

He is, of course, facing charges of having, as it were, misled the House. If that did turn out to be untrue, the Commons ought to feel flattered. It would be the only person or institution whom he has not misled. If this goes on, Boris ought to be unable to command the support of any Tory MP with an IQ in three figures and if Sunak brushes the trouble-makers aside and allows his Party to set his own agenda – perhaps the tiddlywinks aficionado should stay in practice.  

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