Another week, another diabolical polling result for the Conservatives.
The latest prediction from Electoral Calculus puts Labour a whopping 400 seats ahead of the Tories, at 484 seats compared to 84.
If an election were held tomorrow, based on the data, the chances of a Labour majority would be 97%.
The projected Tory seat tally – down from 365 today – would represent the party’s worst ever result by quite some margin. The Conservatives’ nadir is currently 156 seats in the 1906 general election.
In their analysis, the authors write:
“The political outlook was fairly steady in February. Labour’s lead over the Conservatives continues at around 21pc, which is still a very significant amount.
“But there was a more marked divergence between the pollsters on just how big Labour’s lead is. The range varies from 14pc (Savanta) to 28pc (YouGov). But they are all agreed that Labour is well ahead.
“If the public’s attitudes reflect these measurements, then Labour if still on track for a massive majority in the House of Commons.”
The prediction collates opinion polls from 1 to 26 February, before Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal was signed.
The PM will hope that the relatively well-received breakthrough over Northern Ireland will spark a resurgence in the polls.
Sir Keir Starmer can’t afford to be too smug. Things change, and the election is still 18 months away, an awfully long time in politics. As Harold Macmillan once said: “Events, dear boy, events…”
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