If it happens, Russia gets to choose when and how. Only then do Ukraine’s far more limited choices come into play.
Ukraine will react based on the scale of a Russian invasion and the directions from which it comes. The bigger the invasion, the more difficult choices there are.
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Massive airstrikes are pounding Beirut, the Ayatollah stands defiant in Iran, and missiles are flying towards Israel from every direction as the region spirals towards a greater war.
When Russia is raising its defence budget by 25 per cent, Brussels, as well as Britain, must get its house in order.
Tehran will be thinking through how far it wants to take this, even as the ground moves beneath its feet.
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