Iranian attack on Israel looms amid dashed hopes of ceasefire talks

Iran is likely to launch a direct attack on Israel before the end of this week, warn new Israeli and US assessments, as Tehran dismissed calls from the UK, France and Germany to refrain from retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

Iran’s foreign ministry insisted today that Tehran remains “resolute” in defending its national security and Iranian state media reports that the country’s newly installed President, Masoud Pezeshkianin, has told Keir Starmer that “punitive responses against an aggressor” is Iran’s “legal right”. Last night, Starmer became the first British leader to phone an Iranian President in three years, amid a flurry of international diplomacy to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. 

Washington, meanwhile, is not banking on these diplomatic efforts. The US Navy has already deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses ahead of Iran’s anticipated revenge attack. 

Can Tehran still be persuaded to reconsider reprisals? 

Speaking anonymously to Reuters, three senior Iranian security officials, say that the only thing that will prevent a retaliatory attack from Iran is a ceasefire in Gaza. 

The US, Qatar and Egypt have called on Israel and Hamas to meet up in either Cairo or Doha this Thursday, to finalise a ceasefire deal. US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, is heading to the Middle East today in anticipation of the talks. 

Yet chances of an imminent breakthrough appear slim. 

The mere fact that Israel chose to assassinate Haniyeh – who lived in exile in Doha and was regarded as a critical interlocutor in the ceasefire negotiations being brokered by Qatar – suggests reaching an agreement isn’t exactly its top priority. “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” fumed the Prime Minister of Qatar earlier this month, upon hearing the news of Haniyeh’s death. 

Further blasting hopes of progress in truce talks is the fact that the death of Haniyeh leaves Yahya Sinwar at the helm. While Hamas’s late political leader was considered fairly pragmatic compared to the group’s other key figures, Sinwar, who heads the group from underground inside the Gaza Strip, is considered the most hardline and uncompromising of the lot. 

Netanyahu’s office has confirmed that it will send negotiations to the ceasefire talks this Thursday but Hamas has indicated that it does not plan to send a delegation or engage in a fresh round of talks.

In a statement on its official Telegram channel, Hamas said: “The movement calls on the mediators to present a plan to implement what was agreed upon by the movement on July 2, 2024, based on Biden’s vision and the UN Security Council resolution.”

While US President Joe Biden’s May 31 three-phase ceasefire proposal was previously accepted by Hamas, it has already been rejected by Israel. 

“Our statement the other day was clear: what is needed is the implementation, not more negotiation,” one Hamas official told Reuters, adding that an earlier CNN report claiming that the group planned to attend ceasefire talks on Thursday was wrong. 

A ceasefire breakthrough this week does not look hopeful. Iranian officials labelling it the only thing to stop an Iranian revenge attack will know this too. 

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