Is Ron DeSantis a busted flush?
Did you hear the one about the Governor of Florida who visited Britain?
No? Don’t worry. Nor did anybody else.
But at least Britain finally had a chance to be underwhelmed by Ron DeSantis in person this past week when the former Golden Boy of Republican Hopes tried to show his chops as a world statesman. It meant Britain could finally play catchup with the mainland US as we GASPED!!! at how underwhelming he was and SQUEALED!!! as he sucked all the energy from the room.
In one sense it was a hugely successful tour: it finally convinced many on this side of the pond that his appeal has been overstated from the outset. And now we can stop talking about him, forever…
Well, okay, we can’t quite yet stop talking about him. US election cycles are so long that even geological forces stand a chance of turning things on their head (and given the recent earthquakes in California, don’t rule out “The Big One” altering the narrative in the next two years).
For the moment, then, there’s still a discussion to be had about how to view candidates riding the running-boards of the Hype Train. This is the perennial problem with viewing anything from a distance. Seen from afar, DeSantis looked promising because he wasn’t Donald Trump. Call this the “Nikki Haley Effect”, or the “Mike Pompeo Bump” or maybe even the “Joe Biden Magic”. Hell, it’s even been speculated that former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie might jump back into the race, touting himself as “the viable Trump alternative”.
It seems that simply not being Trump is enough to earn anybody a place in the American narrative. And that’s what people thought about DeSantis. It’s only when you see him up close that you realise that DeSantis gives off strong “at least Donald Trump isn’t Ron DeSantis” vibes. They say you only miss something when it’s not there. In this case, you only miss somebody when the alternative is a grumpy former Navy lawyer with a Mickey Mouse phobia.
DeSantis’s arrival in the UK was choreographed in the usual adroit way, even if a large part of the familiar chorus line was cut. He didn’t get a meeting with Sunak (worried about upsetting Trump, perhaps) but did the tango with Alastair Heath over at The Telegraph where the pair high-kicked their way through some crowd favourites. Winston Churchill? He’s a big fan. Brexit? Yay! Woke? Oh, woke! He had more than a few things to say about that. “Woke ideology undermines merit and achievement,” he said. “It is really a war on the truth. […] It is fundamentally at odds with reality and facts and truths, and ultimately a society needs to be grounded in truth.”
This is the DeSantis who, on paper, sounds like the viable candidate who pushes all the right buttons for conservatives. But politics is about more than platitudes and the simple truth is that Ron DeSantis does not do retail politics very well. When he visited Washington a fortnight ago, Republicans were heard muttering their disapproval. “I think he’s an asshole,” said one. “I don’t think he cares about people.” It is said to be a view widely shared inside the GOP.
Those who got to see him in the flesh here in the UK reported that he seemed exhausted by his trip to five countries. He was described variously as “low-wattage” and “horrendous”. Another person in attendance was reported to have said it “felt really a bit like we were watching a state-level politician” which is funny because that’s exactly what they were watching.
It’s always worth bearing in mind that America is perverse in the way its politics operate. We think of it as a united whole, under the control of the guy at the top. This fiction is emphasised by the dual nature of the president being both a political leader and the head of state. The reality is that presidents are limited in their power and America is much closer to the feudal system of old Britain, with smaller kingdoms ruled by their respective monarchs.
DeSantis is the undisputed King of Florida but what works at the level of the state does not always translate to a national stage. His “Don’t Say Gay” law and attempts to turn Disneyworld into an extension of the Republican Party were never going to unlock the centre ground of undecided independent voters. So why, then, did people think he stood a chance?
The arguments are many but one of the most compelling is that Florida is a bit of a basket case politically: notionally a swing state but one that’s been dominated by a Republican Senate and House in recent years. Indeed, it’s the control that the governor has over the legislature that ensures that even a governor with a small mandate has a huge influence on the state’s laws. It means the politics there are oversized and overvalued and doesn’t make a great deal of sense given that they are heavily influenced by the ultra-conservative base. It’s a state whose politics are as wild as its weather. It’s the one state in the country where golfers are routinely attacked by alligators. Politically it’s at odds with the rest of the country.
Again, looking at all this from afar makes it look like DeSantis is more effective than he is. Imagine looking at the UK from a distance and thinking that Nicola Sturgeon could have become the UK’s Prime Minister. It’s that level of fantasy football. Plus, say what you like about Sturgeon (or perhaps not given ongoing investigations), she does at least have something akin to a personable touch.
Video emerged of DeSantis answering questions at an event at the Museum of Tolerance in West Jerusalem on Thursday. The bristles visibly stood up on the Governor’s neck when he was asked to respond to reports that he had witnessed torture when he was a naval officer at Guantanamo Bay. “Do you honestly believe that’s credible? It’s 2006, I’m a junior officer, do you honestly think that they would’ve remembered me?” he asked, going a little red in the face.
It’s a trivial example, but instructive. He could have stone-walled it. He could have laughed it off. Neither would have been memorable and his image would have been neutrally affected. But DeSantis had to lean in, allow himself to appear with the veins in his neck and forehead throbbing. And now we’re talking about it. Now we’re adding it to the long list of reasons why DeSantis is now cratering in the polls. A recent survey by Fox News puts him at 21%, which is statistically neck and neck with professional vaccine sceptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Things are not looking good for DeSantis, leading some to speculate that he might not run even though he has clearly already started the race.
So, what does he need to change his fortunes? Begin with better media training and a new strategy that emphasises personality and good humour (if he has any) rather than hard-line credentials and willingness to send tanks into Disneyland. Beyond that: some good luck for DeSantis would be any bad luck experienced by Trump but the gulf in the polling between the two candidates is huge and has only widened since Trump emerged from his hibernation. Every bad headline for Trump – problems with donors, the ongoing E Jean Carroll rape trial, other trials, looming trials, even more trials – does not alter the fundamentals of his relationship with the electorate. Right now, it’s hard to imagine what bad luck would look like for Trump, apart from anything that impacts his health. Ron DeSantis needs a miracle, but the biggest miracle of all is if he could just learn to not be such an ass.
@DavidWaywell
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