Might King Charles be the one to break through the seemingly intractable NI Protocol?
Is it possible? Might it happen? Could the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone be about to sink at last beneath the waters?
Probably not, is the answer. Unionism always finds a way to disappoint its supporters. But there is a chance –a chance, no more than that – that the EU and UK may have located a way out of the morass of grandstanding and pig-headedness that has marked the progress of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Two factors are at work. The first was the quiet revelation by Maros Sevcovic, the European Commissioner charged with the outworkings of Brexit, that Brussels was prepared to relax more of the regulations governing the operation of the protocol. Sevcovic has made it his mission in life to bring the ongoing row over trade between mainland UK and Northern Ireland to an end before it leads to a disastrous trade war with Britain. With Liz Truss newly installed as prime minister, he is ready to go for broke.
But the second factor, at least as important, arises from the visit to the province on Tuesday by King Charles and the Queen Consort.
The King’s six-hour stopover was unforeseen, following on the death of his mother, the Queen. But it may just have changed the political dynamic at Stormont. As things stand, the Assembly, newly elected in May, is boycotted by the Democratic Unionist Party, which sees the protocol as a means of separating Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom. Unless and until the party returns to Stormont, no Executive can be formed and the future of devolution itself remains up in the air.
The royal visit, divided between Hillsborough Castle – the Monarch’s official residence in NI – and St Anne’s Cathedral in Belfast, went better than anyone had predicted. Not only was there an evident outpouring of sympathy for the King, but Sinn Fein – Sinn Fein! – went out of its way to express its condolences and to reassure all who would listen that from now on, with give and take on both sides, even hardline Republicans can learn to live in harmony with the House of Windsor.
Alex Maskey, as interim Speaker of the Stormont Assembly, couldn’t have been more fulsome in the address he offered to the King in the castle’s throne room. A former boxer and barman, Maskey was a long-time member of the Provisional IRA who was twice interned in the 1970s. For him to speak warmly, and respectfully, of the Queen and to express the hope that her successor would continue her good work in Ireland was a development that during the long years of the Troubles would have seemed an impossible dream.
Immediately prior to Maskey’s speech, the King spent an hour with the leaders of the five main party leaders at Stormont, including Sir Jeffrey Donaldson of the DUP. We don’t know precisely what passed between the Sovereign and Sir Jeffrey, but we do know that the subject of the Protocol was raised and that Donaldson can have been left in no doubt as to the King’s preferred course of action.
Sinn Fein, meanwhile, was engaged in a shameless charm offensive. Michelle O’Neil, the party’s leader in the North and putative First Minister at Stormont, was seen to kiss the King’s hand. At one point, it looked as if she might even hug him. The remaining leaders did their best, but it was Donaldson and O’Neill – the latter dressed in a coal-black trouser suit – that the King had come to see, hoping, perhaps, to persuade Donaldson that, in tribute to the Queen, if for no other reason, he should think seriously about an early return to government.
Was the DUP man moved? It is hard to tell. Impassivity is part of his stock in trade. The BBC commentator couldn’t help noticing that he stood aloof during exchanges with his fellow leaders, keeping his arms folded, looking steadfastly into the middle distance. But it was later reported that Donaldson had detected “positive sounds” coming from Brussels and that he was hopeful matters could “progress”.
Those positive sounds – noises off – slipped out sotto voce when it was disclosed by officials in Brussels that Sevcovic was ready for a new round of talks on the protocol that, with luck and a following wind, would end in agreement. The Slovakian commissioner has apparently said that checks on goods from the UK to Northern Ireland could in future be reduced to just a handful each day, perhaps even to just two. The physical infrastructure would remain in place at the ports of Belfast and Larne, and the EU’s right to examine suspicious cargoes would continue, but, on a practical level, trade would be free-flowing.
Last year, the Commissioner proposed a reduction in checks relating to some 85 per cent of goods, with sausages, other cooked meats and medicines taken off the list. Now he seems to have warmed to the British suggestion of red lines and green lines, distinguishing between trucks bound for the Irish Republic and those with cargoes destined purely for sale in Northern Ireland. If so, an agreed solution could indeed be on the cards. The one remaining bugbear would be the role of the European Court of Justice, which under the protocol retains the right to adjudicate on disputes. The DUP used never to mention the court. It was the insistence by UK ministers, notably David Frost, that it be replaced by an independent tribunal that lead to the present impasse. But the DUP – ever mindful of NI as an equal nation of the kingdom, separate from the Republic – was only too happy to go along.
If Jeffrey Donaldson and his colleagues in the Assembly can be convinced that a stripped-down protocol, albeit one that still leaves a customs barrier down the Irish Sea, is acceptable to the amour propre of unionists, the deal could be done and dusted inside of a month. The controversial Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, designed unilaterally to remove the protocol from the EU-UK withdrawal agreement, could be dropped and a trade war with Europe averted.
It falls now to Liz Truss to apply pressure on the DUP from Westminster. On Monday, on the fringe of the Queen’s state funeral, Truss is expected to meet the Irish prime minister, Micheál Martin, who, like her, is keen to see the back of a crisis that placed an especially mischievous monkey on the back of relations between Britain and Europe. The PM may also find time to meet with France’s Emmanuel Macron, who in recent days has gone out of his way to demonstrate his high regard for Britain and its monarchy. A tripartite pact between Paris, London and Dublin, added to the Sescovic initiative and a quiet nudge from the King, could change everything in the blinking of an eye. The question is, is Jeffrey Donaldson ready to make the necessary leap of faith?
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