Can Trump be stopped?
Donald Trump made history once again today after he became the first ever candidate in the US to be banned by a state from running for President. But will the ruling from Colorado’s Supreme Court dent his election chances? It’s too soon to say.
The ruling – split 3-4 – said that Trump should be barred as a candidate in the state’s Republican primary contest because of the “clear and convincing evidence that [he] engaged in insurrection” by stoking the January 6 Capitol Hill riots. Part of the US Constitution – section 3 of the 14th Amendment, to be specific – disqualifies those who’ve engaged in insurrection or rebellion from holding elected office.
In itself, today’s ruling won’t change the outcome of the election. It only applies to Colorado, which is regarded as a safe Democratic state, and Trump is far enough ahead of his Republican rivals to still win his party’s nomination without competing there.
Even so, the verdict will concern the former US President. Other states could be more incentivised to follow suit and exclude him from their primary ballot too.
Crucially, the ruling also piles the pressure on America’s top court. Trump has already said he will appeal to the US Supreme Court to overturn the decision.
If the Supreme Court takes up the case, it may well not uphold the Colorado verdict. But if it does, the ruling could apply nationally.
Today’s fresh legal blow for Trump is very unlikely to diminish his popularity. So far, four indictments and a mugshot have only widened his lead over his Republican rivals and President Biden too.
The only other Republican candidate picking up any momentum is Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina and US ambassador to the UN. Her deep-pocketed supporters have turbo-charged spending on her presidential bid in recent weeks in a last-ditch effort to boost her chances. Yet Trump remains miles ahead in the Republican race – as much as 50% ahead of any other rival.
As for Biden, incumbent presidents generally sail through the nomination process. And there is still nothing to suggest he may stand aside, despite his approval rating tumbling again this week to an all-time-low of 34%.
The voting season will kick on in the New Year, with Republicans in Iowa holding their first 2024 nominating contest, known as caucuses, on January 15. Next in line is New Hampshire, which will hold its first-in-the-nation primaries on January 23.
As Adam Boulton wrote recently in Reaction, Haley’s supporters will be hoping that she can squeeze out Ron DeSantis in Iowa and then power into New Hampshire as easily the most popular Trump alternative. This would give her momentum before “Super Tuesday” on 5 March, the biggest single day of primaries which often helps whittle down the field of candidates.
Further down the line, the successful Republican and Democratic presidential candidates will be revealed in mid-July and late August respectively. Then, on 5 November 2024, the US general election will take place.
Biden’s allies insist it’s far too early for polling to be predictive of the President’s fate in November 2024. And they may be right. Politics is becoming more volatile and these contests can be difficult to predict almost a year away from voting. Indeed, neither Trump nor Obama were favourites at the equivalent stage of their successful bids for the presidency.
Even so, there remains a very real possibility – one not eliminated by today’s Colorado ruling – that by next Christmas, President Donald Trump will be back in the Oval Office.
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