You are the leader in an authoritarian state. Mobs are on the street, government buildings are on fire, some radio stations have gone off the air, and police units have been filmed surrendering. You might be going down, so, it’s decision time. Shoot enough protestors to crush the uprising, or rely on violent but ostensibly non-lethal riot control?
In the early hours of Thursday morning, Kazakhstan’s President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev made his choice. Troops backed by armoured personal carriers appeared at key points in the city of Almaty and opened fire. According to police spokeswoman Saltanat Azirbek, “dozens of attackers were liquidated”. The government said in addition to those who had been killed, about a thousand people had been injured and up to 400 were in hospital. About 2,000 people have been detained arrested in Almaty alone.
To make that decision you need to be sure the troops ordered to do the killing are loyal. Tokayev bolstered his case by describing the protesters as “a band of terrorists” who had been trained abroad, but he didn’t offer any evidence to back up his claim. The soldiers will have been aware of official reports that at least 12 police officers had been killed and 353 injured as they tried to prevent looting and attacks on government property. The authorities say these figures have now risen to 18 dead and 748 wounded.
The order to open fire was probably given after Tokayev had received backing from army commanders and then assurances from President Putin that Russian soldiers would be among the “peacekeeping force” now being deployed by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Kazakhstan is a member of the CTSO along with Armenia, Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The demonstrations do not appear to be organized. Politics in Kazakhstan is dominated by the ruling Nur Ultan party which has successfully side-lined opposition parties to the extent that there are no high-profile opposition figures to lead or direct the protests. This week, Tokayev asked himself ‘me and whose army?’ and once he had the answer, he will have been confident brutality would save the regime.
Before that moment he was more emollient. He tried the classic “If only my deputies were more talented” routine as he accepted the mass “resignation” of his cabinet on the grounds, as he said, that they had failed to carry out “one of its main tasks — keeping inflation in check.” In an address to the nation, the price of LNG fuel, (the main factor sparking the riots) was frozen, and political reforms were promised. The mob kept coming. He even “fired” his mentor, former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, as head of the Security Council.
That was quite a move. Nazarbayev, who stood down in 2019, is thought to remain the power behind the throne after almost three decades in the top job. The protestors clearly think so. He may retain the official title of Elbasy or Leader of the Nation, but the protestors were chanting “Shal ket!” or “Old man, out!” Officially he was out, but the mob kept coming.
In a second address, just a few hours after the first, Tokayev said “Almaty became victims of attacks by terrorists, bandits, therefore it is our duty … to take all possible actions to protect our state”. He pulled the trigger.
Now what? Russia will not miss the opportunity to try and secure more influence in the former Soviet republic. They share a 4,700-mile-long border and 20% of Kazakhs are ethnically Russian.
Kazakhstan is the ninth largest country in the world – the size of Western Europe. It has huge reserves of oil, gas, and minerals. It’s a rich country with a mostly poor population. Moscow and Beijing have spent most of this century vying for influence in all the Central Asian Republics and this is a chance for Putin to remind Tokayev ‘you owe me one’.
The country is now in an official state of emergency for at least another week. Overnight curfews are in place and there is a ban on religious services – a blow to the sizeable Orthodox Christian population which celebrates Christmas this weekend.
If the measures Tokayev has taken quell the disturbances he then has another choice. His first speech to the people suggested dialogue and an opening up of politics. His second threatened the violence which was then carried out. Some might think that now is the time to enact far reaching reforms which pave the way for a genuine democracy. But you are the leader in an authoritarian state. A democracy might be the sort of place where former authoritarian leaders are arrested. Why would you make that choice?