Make-or-break for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire

The stakes could not be higher for Nikki Haley, the last remaining Republican challenger to Donald Trump, as the two prepare to face off against each other in New Hampshire. Unless the former South Carolina governor can pull off a victory in tomorrow’s primary, then the race to take on Biden in the 2024 US election could be over practically before it’s even begun.

At present, Donald Trump – buoyed by his landslide win in Iowa – has a commanding lead in the polls. Bookies are giving him a 91 per cent chance of securing the Republican nominee to Haley’s nine per cent. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the race altogether and thrown his weight behind Trump. 

52 year-old Haley has poured her energy into tomorrow’s primary – and with good reason.  A poor performance begs the question: if she can’t win in New Hampshire, then where can she win?

White-collar suburbs are precisely where Trump tends to underperform and New Hampshire has a high concentration of white-collar, college-educated professionals. It’s a state known for more moderate Republicanism, where Haley’s brand of respectable politics goes down well. Supporters there also argue that her more measured approach gives her a better chance of beating Biden in November’s general election.

Adding to the likelihood of her securing a victory, New Hampshire is a semi-open primary, meaning more centrist independents can vote there.

At present, polls indicate Haley is trailing Trump in the state by around 11 per cent. 

In recent months, Haley has consolidated support from a number of deep-pocketed donors. But if Trump secures a booming victory tomorrow, much of this support could dry up.

If she defies the odds and prevails, then she will buy herself more time. Though another big test will come in a month’s time in her very own South Carolina. A failure to win would be a blow to her authority. 

Of course, the longer Haley hangs on in there, the more bruising Trump’s attacks will become. And the less likely he is to offer her any position if he does secure a victory. Haley insists she has no desire to be his vice-presidential nominee, though that’s not to say she wouldn’t accept some sort of position – were he to offer it. After all, she has accepted one before, as his former ambassador to the UN. 

There are, of course, Trump’s legal woes to take into consideration, which may incentivise her not to drop out. Yet increasingly it looks as though Trump’s host of indictments is merely set to galvanise his fanbase. 

If Haley clings on in the competition but continues to endure humiliating losses, she will weaken her political brand. Certainly her chances of running again in the 2028 presidential campaign will diminish.

Which means the South Carolina governor could soon have some tricky questions to answer over how much she is willing to prioritise her short-term political ambitions, even if it means putting her future career at stake. 

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