Migration highest since Second World War
Net migration to Britain has surpassed half a million for the first time ever, smashing the pre-Brexit record by quite some margin.
Around 1.1 million people migrated to the UK in the year leading up to June 2022, according to new ONS data. After subtracting those who emigrated, the UK population has risen by 504,000.
To put these figures in context, UK net migration was negative 30 years ago. It reached a peak of 330,000 just before the Brexit vote, then started to decline following the end of freedom of movement. During the pandemic, the curb of global movement prompted a big drop in net migration to Britain. But now it has surged.
The staggering rise has left Nigel Farage fulminating, prompting him to confirm that Reform will stand a full slate of candidates at the next election and not make any deals with Conservative MPs. “These net migration figures are hard to take in…The Tories deserve to be wiped out,” declared Farage today.
The rise is in many ways unexpected: net migration had been expected to fall to just over 100,000 after Brexit.
So why have things headed so dramatically in the opposite direction?
Non-EU nationals are driving the trend higher. Indeed, EU migration has remained negative – with 51,000 more EU nationals leaving Britain than entering.
The extraordinary surge in non-EU nationals is explained by what the ONS has labelled a “unique” set of circumstances with more than half – 276,000 – of those arriving in the year up to June coming on bespoke government humanitarian schemes. For example, 89,000 were from Ukraine, 21,000 from Afghanistan and 76,000 from Hong Kong.
The balance of non-EU nationals was mainly made up of skilled workers coming to take up jobs in the NHS. Work visas increased by 72% compared with last comparable pre-pandemic data in 2019, with 331,000 issued in the year to June 2022.
A pandemic-induced backlog also explained the rise in the number of international students arriving: 227,000 came on student visas, around double the amount the previous year. Many foreign students who had intended to travel to Britain postponed their studies due to lockdowns.
The rise has nothing to do with the record figure of almost 40,000 Channel crossings this year. Those entering Britain via clandestine routes are not included in these ONS estimates. What’s more, today’s half a million figure rather puts into perspective that migrants crossing the Channel comprise just a tiny portion of those going on to settle in the UK.
It’s too early to know whether 2022 is something of an anomaly, or whether the rise could be the start of a long-term trend.
Specific circumstances such as Covid and war in Ukraine mean “we cannot assume [the figures] represent a ‘new normal,’” insists Oxford University’s politically independent Migration Observatory research unit. So “it would be rash to take major policy decisions based only on these numbers.”
Even so, the rise will intensify debate over the role of overseas workers in the UK labour market.
While Suella Braverman has resurrected the – now laughably ambitious – target of getting net migration down to the tens of thousands, Sunak has been more vague. Number 10 has simply said that the PM wants to bring overall immigration levels down. Sunak appears to be weighing up a clash with his Home Secretary against a fallout with business leaders.
Just this week, the CBI urged the government to bring in more foreign workers to fill the record 1.2 million vacancies in key sectors such as hospitality.
After today, however, Sunak will face far greater pressure to lay out a clearer target for net migration.
Speaking of targets, just this week, a Tory rebellion forced the PM to put his target for building 300,000 new homes a year on hold. Yet this latest new evidence of Britain’s growing population will act as momentum for those keen to push through the long-awaited planning reforms.
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