Mixed polling reveals a highly unpredictable Tory leadership race ahead

With the Conservative leadership election picking up pace, sort of, and autumn nearing, new polling suggests the race to replace Rishi Sunak could be razor-tight.

The James Cleverly campaign is touting James Cleverly as the favourite to take over as Tory leader, citing polling among party members. According to the first major poll of the contest, released yesterday in a survey of 805 party members conducted by Techne UK earlier this month, 26 per cent put the shadow home secretary as their first choice. Cleverly has so far received endorsements from MPs including Simon Hoare and the Shadow Education Secretary Gagan Mohindra, with the latter declaring, “only James can unite our party”. The Techne poll was paid for by the Cleverly campaign.

Oddchecker has Kemi Badenoch as the front runner. Badenoch has already received the backing of MPs including Andrew Bowie, Andrew Griffith and Jesse Norman, who said he believes she is “the right person to take these challenges on, to draw the best from the past but galvanise fresh energies and set a new direction.” Conservative Home data published in mid-June also showed her to be the early front-runner, backed by a quarter of party members.  

Until yesterday, Oddschecker had Robert Jenrick as the front runner, narrowly ahead of Badenoch. The former immigration minister’s poor performance in Monday’s Techne poll is perhaps what allowed Badenoch to overtake him. Jenrick was listed as the top choice for just 10 per cent of Tory party members, behind Priti Patel on 20 per cent, Kemi Badenoch on 14 per cent and Tom Tugendhat on 11 per cent.

Jenrick’s leadership bid was boosted yesterday by the deputy chair of the Conservative party, Matthew Vickers, resigning in order to back Jenrick. Vickers couldn’t declare support for a candidate with standing back from his role given that the CCHQ is remaining neutral in the contest. Following his resignation, he declared that Jenrick is the standout candidate, who has “the clearest diagnosis” of why the party lost the general election as well as “the credibility” to earn back trust of the public. Esther McVey, Caroline Johnson and Father of the House, Edward Leigh, have also backed him. 

Jenrick has pledged to bring back a tougher version of the Rwanda scheme, having previously resigned from his role as immigration minister in protest over Sunak’s plans supposedly not going far enough. He has also vowed that Britain would leave the ECHR under his leadership but has statedthat Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, would have no place in the party. 

Shadow Security Minister Tom Tugendhat, meanwhile, is the favourite among the general public, according to a YouGov poll. Which is perhaps unsurprising given that he is generally viewed as the centrist candidate. Tugendhat has also received the endorsement of a third of Conservative MSPs, who said his leadership “will be a help, not a hindrance, to the Scottish Conservatives in the battles ahead”, including the Holyrood election in 2026. 

As for former Home Secretary, Priti Patel, her strong performance in the Techne poll is a reminder of the considerable fanbase she still enjoys amongst party members. Yet some Tory voices have expressed concern that her unpopularity with the wider British public would minimise, to put it mildly, the chances of a return to government for the Conservative party at the next election. 

The only remaining leadership candidate, Mel Stride, faces an uphill battle. The former work and pensions secretary came in last place in the Techne poll, with just four per cent of members listing him as their top choice. That said, he has secured the backing of MPs including Mark Garnier, George Freeman and Desmond Swayne. 

Conservative MPs will begin voting from 4 September to narrow the candidates down to four in time for the party conference at the end of the month. From there, Conservative MPs will vote again, whittling the candidates down to two by early October. From 15 October, Tory party members will have two weeks to cast a ballot to decide which of these two final contenders should be leader. On 2 November, the winner will be declared. 

With many more MPs yet to endorse a candidate, the race remains very open. There is no clear favourite. 

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