Time for a change: Do the Tories stand a chance against such a potent political motto?

It ought to be impossible for the Tories to win the next election. So much has gone against them. On the economy, the government has plenty of excuses, but there is a point when a lot of voters just become fed up. “Time for a change” is the most potent weapon in electoral politics. At some stage, it does seem tempting to give the other lot a chance, especially in view of recent political events. A generation ago, at the Whitehall theatre, Brian Rix would put on farces. During the last few years, the farces moved to the Westminster theatre, with prime ministers taking the lead role. 

There is a further factor. This is partly based on anecdotes, but I sense a widespread feeling, expressed in constant complaints, that in Britain, nothing seems to work.

So a Tory recovery would seem unthinkable, and yet, somehow, it does not feel like that. We may well be in a period of unprecedented political volatility.

There are a number of reasons for this. Time for a change: when we have a Hindu PM, there has surely already been a dramatic change. Not only that: for the first time since David Cameron resigned, we have a prime minister who acts and sounds the part. Government abhors a vacuum. Under weak ministers, the civil service takes over; someone has to. But Rishi Sunak and his team have subtly yet firmly re-established control. 

Moreover, the precedents are in his favour. At least since the 19th century, no prime minister who is as vigorous and confident as Sunak has been thrown out at a general election. Admittedly, the issues on which he has displayed his mastery have been arcane ones, principally the Northern Ireland Protocol and AUKUS, but it will surely filter down to a lot of voters that we now have a proper PM.

There is nothing much wrong with Keir Starmer. He has always displayed a wooden decency, which could have been effective against Boris Johnson. But where is the excitement? If people are exasperated because nothing works, is Sir Keir the man to put this right? A lot of the public now take a low view of the political class which includes all politicians. There is a market for someone who could insist that he would do better; he would rise above the general dispiriting level of semi-competence and mediocrity. Could Keir Starmer make that claim with any conviction? There is a simple answer: no.

Rishi Sunak could, and he has a formidable and as yet undeployed adjutant.

The other evening, I sat next to a very impressive young man. I am not allowed to list his considerable merits because he does not wish to be identified, but he would, inter alia, make a formidable politician. So I asked him what he thought of Kemi Badenoch. “Who?” came the answer. He then apologised, but I told him that it was not his fault if the Tory powers-that-be are not yet utilising the second most impressive politician in Britain (after the PM).   

Personalities can be transformative, but the government also needs themes and a narrative: all related. It is important to point out to the public that Britain’s economic difficulties are global. We are not responsible for the pandemic, nor for the current banking crises, nor for the troubled state of diplomacy and geopolitics. But ministers can take a lot of credit for the growth of the high-tech sector: numerous small firms, many of which will grow into large enterprises, and large-scale job creators. Equally, some of the supply-side measures in the latest Budget should pay dividends.

The most difficult task facing Rishi Sunak would appear to be national disillusion, as expressed by “nothing works”. Labour will obviously try to exploit this: who has been in power during those years when nothing was working? Tony Blair could indeed have stirred up passion along those lines. Although Sir Keir may try, he is incapable of rising above plodding dullardry. But the Tories could find the answer. Instead of trying to claim that everything is splendid, they should immediately concede that there are too many aspects of national life where nothing is working well. Covid helped to highlight this. It must now be corrected, with a large-scale programme of public-sector reform, and a frank acknowledgement that the government does not have all the answers. 

Back to volatility: so much could go wrong. The world is full of black swans, not to mention other bizarre fauna such as Boris Johnson. But the PM has no choice. First, he must deal with the problems as they arise. Second, he must get his own message across. That is not impossible, and after all, as a great Lady would have reminded him, “There is no alternative.” Moreover, things can go right as well as wrong. It is just possible that Rishi Sunak will turn out to be a lucky prime minister. 

Write to us with your comments to be considered for publication at letters@reaction.life