Truss exit: It’s no longer a question of if but when

Cabinet ministers and Conservative MPs are in a state of suspended animation, still not sure what to do about the position of Liz Truss.

One adviser said last night: “Everyone is paralysed and no-one knows how to go forward. We know Truss has to go but no one can decide how to do it: or who takes over. It’s the most extraordinary position to be in.”

While the chancellor-stroke-unofficial-PM’s dramatic reversal of £32bn of tax cuts has calmed the markets, perhaps buying Truss a little time in the process, it has failed to bolster her popularity with the British public. Even Tory Party members are now turning on her. 

According to a damning YouGov poll, 55% of Conservative members say Truss should resign – that includes 39% of members who voted for her. If the summer’s leadership election was re-run, 55 per cent of members would vote for Sunak while just 25 per cent would cast their vote for Truss.

A separate poll reveals only 10 per cent of Britons have a favourable opinion of the prime minister, while 80 per cent have an unfavourable view of her. This gives her a net favourability rating of -70, which is 15 points lower than Jeremy Corbyn’s worst-ever score of -55 in June 2019.

These abysmal findings make Truss’s insistence on Monday evening that she will lead her party into the next general election appear even more incredible. But the PM, who met with the cabinet today in a bid to shore up her premiership, is determined that she will not throw in the towel. 

However, the cabinet meeting in question did reflect the government’s change of course. With Truss’s growth plan ditched, the focus now is on fiscal discipline. 

Jeremy Hunt stoked fears about austerity 2.0 by warning ministers that, although public spending will rise overall, all departments would have to “look at finding ways to save taxpayers’ money” and make cuts in their budgets to fill the hole in the public finances. Hunt has refused to commit to protecting even the health department from this tricky task. Though according to the PM’s spokesperson: “The chancellor said this work should focus on areas which should not affect the service the public receives.”

Cabinet ministers will be jumpy about seeing their budgets slashed. Scrapping the commitment, made in the light of Russia’s war in Ukraine, to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 will prove particularly contentious. James Heappey, the armed forces minister, and Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, have already signalled they would resign if Truss were to abandon this pledge. 

A Number 10 spokesperson also said today that Truss can no longer confirm whether the triple lock will stay in place – the guarantee that state pensions will rise every year in line with inflation, earnings, or 2.5%, whichever is highest. Just two weeks ago, during the party conference, Truss said she was “committed” to this policy. 

Speaking of rowbacks, while Truss repeatedly ruled out a further windfall tax on energy companies during her leadership campaign, Hunt has told MPs he is “not against the principle” of windfall taxes and would not rule out a new one. With the energy package now set to be reviewed after six months, creating fresh fears about average energy bills rising to £5000 in the spring, perhaps this option will be revisited. 

Truss is due tomorrow to face Starmer at PMQs – just one week after she stood at the dispatch box declaring she was “absolutely” committed to no public spending cuts, while dismissing Labour’s feeble six month energy package. Whether she will go ahead – or ask Penny Mordaunt to step in – is the big question. 

It’s hard to imagine how Truss’s attempt to defend her new position will be anything other than excruciating to watch. But it might just be what is needed to provoke Tory MPs out of their paralysis and into action. 

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