What Macron’s win means for Britain

The dust is settling on a historic victory for Emmanuel Macron, who has become the first French president to be re-elected in two decades.

Macron will keep his keys to the Élysée after defeating his far-right rival Marine Le Pen by a margin of 58 per cent to 42 per cent in Sunday’s runoff vote.

Walter Ellis has explored what Macron’s winmeans for France, while Gabriel Gavin looks at the implications for Ukraine. But on our side of the Channel, many are wondering whether Macron’s second term will usher in friendlier relations between Britain and France.

While Boris Johnson was swift to congratulate his French counterpart after polls closed on Sunday night, ambassadors in Paris and London agree that relations between the two countries are at their lowest since Waterloo. This is largely a Brexit hangover. Macron, a fiercely pro-EU president, pushed for the hardest line from Brussels during the years of the Brexit negotiations. 

Now, Johnson is drawing up plans for a post-election “diplomatic reset” with the French President and his team. But how likely is a thaw in relations?

During the election, Macron used his pro-EU credentials to distinguish himself from Le Pen, handing out EU flags alongside election pamphlets at his rallies and accusing his nationalist and eurosceptic opponent of pursuing Frexit by stealth. A desire to be re-elected also motivated him to take a tough stance with Britain. The row over post-Brexit fishing licences, for instance, is largely resolved because the UK quietly conceded to most French demands. Macron was keen to prove he was fighting for French fishermen to stop them voting for Le Pen. 

Now that his victory is in the bag, Macron is arguably under less pressure to get tough with the UK. Then again, it could have the exact opposite effect. If the election was also, as Macron himself described it, “a referendum on Europe”, then he won it. The vote of confidence in his beloved Brussels could embolden him to be even less compromising with the UK on unresolved Brexit issues. This will be put to the test if the UK government unilaterally overrides or tries to bypass the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Brexit feuds aside, another pressing issue requiring cooperation and causing rifts between the two countries is Channel crossings. 

Britain gave France £54m last year to police Channel beaches. But the UK government has criticised the French authorities’ patchy efforts to stop migrants from crossing. France has retaliated, blaming Britain’s lax labour laws – and the ready availability of black market work in the UK – for fuelling crossings. Macron also cancelled a visit from Priti Patel after Johnson published an open letter to France calling on it to take back migrants.

Johnson is reportedly hoping to push for a new deal with the French president on stopping migrant crossings. A British government source has voiced the hope: “Now Macron’s electioneering is out of the way we can come together around the table and look at sensible solutions to solve what is a shared problem.”

Yet the disagreements that political posturing made worse are unlikely to evaporate overnight. While Johnson may be relieved he’s not having to start from scratch with Presidente Le Pen, his frenemy in the Élysée won’t make things easy.