Civil war in nuclear-armed Russia shows why the West must rearm fast

This is Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, exclusively for Reaction subscribers.

Never invade Russia, it won’t end well. For more than two centuries that has been axiomatic, one of the core lessons of European history since the start of the 19th century. Napoleon, the German General Staff in the First World War and Hitler in the Second World War all found out the hard way what happens, with their men and tens of millions of civilians paying the price. The territory is so vast and inhospitable, and the Russian capacity for enduring suffering so enormous, that any invading force finds itself swallowed up by the sheer immensity and cruelty of the place.

This weekend we are in new territory, although there are echoes of the civil war that followed the Russian revolution in 1917. Today Russians are trying to invade Russia, from inside the Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine. The head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner that has been fighting in Ukraine says it is heading for Moscow, although getting there won’t be easy.

For months there has been chatter from the Ukrainian side that something like this was coming, although there was scepticism in the West. Now it is happening.

On Saturday morning, Wagner units announced they had taken control of the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, in southern Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s former chef who built Wagner, was recorded making a statement from inside the headquarters where the Russian war effort in Ukraine is a directed. His troops have also taken control of the military airport, he claimed.

The centre of Rostov-on-Don is 706 miles from the Kremlin. From further north there are reports of Wagner troops fighting outside Voronezh, 327 miles from the capital, with the Russian airforce striking Wagner in retaliation. In the last hour Wagner claims to have got even closer. If this is true, the speed of the advance is such that they must surely be receiving cooperation from elements of the Russian military.

History shows getting close to Moscow, or even into Moscow itself, is no guarantee of eventual success. And Prigozhin is no better than Putin. Among the White Russians who fought in the years after the Revolution were democrats and forces dedicated to returning Russia to the community of nations. Wagner is a war crimes machine and a product of Russia’s twisted oligarch culture.

Vladimir Putin responded on Saturday morning with a blood-curdling condemnation of what he termed treason. There had been suspicions for months that the Russian leader was content to see the Wagner leader pressurise the Russian military leadership, and if the military failed against the Ukraine spring (now summer) offensive, then Putin could fire the commanders and back Prigozhin. Perhaps, but now the pair are engaged in a fight to the death with the outcome resting on the extent to which the Russian army and the GRU, the military intelligence service with its own special forces, stay loyal to Putin. Prigozhin must hope to persuade sufficient numbers of units to join the rebellion.

As the UK Ministry of Defence’s latest defence intelligence summary put it today:

“Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out. This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.”

For Ukraine this is very obviously a great opportunity to exploit Russian divisions and retake territory.

For the West it is a reminder of the need for far more effective rearmament against the Russian threat. This is understood in Poland particularly and in Finland, Sweden and the Baltic states. The Poles will spend perhaps more than 4% of GDP this year on defence and deterring Russia.

The rebellion underway illustrates the inherent instability of Russia, a rogue state that has never had a true reckoning with its historical mistakes and 20th century crimes.

There is no plausible nice outcome from the present crisis. Even if Putin or a future successor is replaced by someone seemingly more amenable to a rules-based international order, European defence and security policy will have to be conducted for decades on the basis that at any point the world could awake to another attempted coup, or another Russian rebellion in a state with nuclear weapons. A future leader could be even more nationalistic and in seeking revenge for Ukrainian victory strike NATO territory, attack Poland, the Baltic states or Scandinavia, or knock out the undersea cable network.

All the West can do is arm itself sufficiently in readiness, hope for open communication on nuclear stockpiles, re-establish the language of deterrence and pray somewhere in the Russian system for the appearance in time of a leader who is unlike either Putin or Prigozhin.

The week the Tories lost

Is it the week the Tories lost the next general election? At Westminster it certainly felt like it. The latest YouGov opinion poll for The Times gives Labour a 25 point lead and there is Tory gloom.

Among MPs and ministers there was widespread acceptance that the dire situation is far from being entirely Rishi Sunak’s fault. There is a faint hope that the news cycle turns so fast in politics that they might somehow get a lucky break. He’s hard-working, diligent and going about his role in a very different way from the way narcissist Boris Johnson did. That may not be enough, though, when history turns, as Jim Callaghan discovered.

Perhaps Sunak’s greatest mistake (other than the Corporation Tax rise at the worst time or the Stamp Duty cut during the pandemic which made the crazy property boom worse) was as Chancellor not being much tougher earlier with the BoE.

When they miss their inflation target the Governor is obliged to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining what has happened. Time and again it happened, month after month. The Governor explained this was down to international conditions and it would pass. And the Chancellor, Sunak, wrote back to say he agreed with the Governor’s analysis.

If he had his time again I suspect Sunak would respond differently. Serious errors had been made by the Bank and there were warnings, at the time. QE had been continued for too long and the Bank was too sanguine about inflation.

Which leads me on to the next item, the mess at the Bank of England.

Carney’s folly

A word in mitigation on Andrew Bailey. The Governor of the Bank of England has, rightly, faced criticism for the performance of the BoE under his leadership. They were too slow to raise rates and said inflation was transitory. Alas, inflation has now become embedded.

It must not be forgotten in the blame game that a good deal of the fault for what has happened at the BoE lies with Mark Carney, Bailey’s predecessor. Last week’s newsletter touched on this and the culpability of central bankers who maintained crisis measures – low rates and excessive money-printing – for so long after the 2008 financial crisis.

Bailey inherited a mess. Carney broadened the role of the Bank as it sought to became a player on climate change and inclusion. The discredited Stonewall (discredited by feminists who identify the organisation as having pursued an extreme trans rights agenda) made the Bank a diversity champion. The Bank paid Stonewall £10,000 from 2019-21, the Mail on Sunday revealed.

Inevitably, this change of direction and institutional character had an effect. An organisation busying itself being involved in social policy and “saving” the planet inevitably had less time or attention for its core responsibilities, the management of monetary policy and combating inflation. Carneyism created a distraction.

The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee is holding an inquiry into what went wrong on monetary policy and what might be improved. Away from the noise of the Commons, and the facile soundbites about the cost of living crisis, this is where the real action is on the key subject in British politics. What went wrong on inflation? How can the Bank restore its credibility? How can oversight and accountability be improved?

The committee has been taking evidence and will report in the autumn.

Bella, bella

That’s a Gregory’s Girl reference, from the greatest Scottish film ever made, although Local Hero comes close. Bella, Bella, is the only Italian schoolboy Gregory has mastered as he attempts to impress people. We’re away for the next two weeks in Italy, on the coast below Salerno in a village that is bella, bella. The plan is quite straightforward. It involves jumping in the sea, ordering a Campari spritz, reading and sleeping. The Reaction team will be providing coverage throughout. Look out for their daily briefing every evening. And my weekly newsletter will come next week from Max Mitchell, who has just joined our Young Journalists Programme, our scheme providing paid training and mentoring for the next generation. The programme is at the heart of Reaction, and your subscription helps make it possible. Thank you for being a subscriber.

What I’m reading

To Italy I’m taking my friend Con Coughlin’s new book Assad: the Triumph of Tyranny; France on Trial: the Case of Marshall Petain, by Julian Jackson; and Mannerheim: Marshal of Finland, a Life in Geopolitics, by Henrik Meinander. They have all been well reviewed. I’m aware it’s a war heavy selection, though. Any recommendations for new novels, preferably novels containing jokes, are welcome. In Waterstones, Piccadilly, the other day I spent half an hour looking in the new fiction section for something enticing by a young writer, something written with the verve and wit of Evelyn Waugh, Kingsley Amis or Alexander McCall Smith. There didn’t seem to be much of it about. Everything seemed to have been produced by the same people who have turned daytime BBC Radio Four so sanctimonious. Turn it on and within three minutes there will be an item about decolonisation or your privilege. Suggestions for entertaining new novels please.