Labour may well return to power
Commentators are well advised to avoid predictions – especially mid-term, especially before the two main parties are about to hold their traditional annual conferences, above all when there has been a mid-stream switch of Prime Minister, who has gone on to reach for the traditional electoral expedient of bribing the voters with tax cuts and hand-outs.
Unfortunately grasping for straws in the wind is one of the clichés of the columnist’s job description, in which case, it’s best to mix metaphors and hedge your bets. This week two excellent political observers ended their pieces on the state of things wisely considering the chances of a recovery in the governing party’s electoral fortunes. First Robert Shrimsley in the Financial Times: “The Conservatives are shaping a political argument that has succeeded before. Scepticism is well justified but, given their electoral record, it is at least worth considering the possibility that they know their audience.” Next Reaction’s own supremo, Iain Martin, in The Times: “What Truss is trying to do in remaking Britain is so countercultural that she’ll need to be very lucky indeed.”
Down but not quite out then! Prime Minister Truss has the ball and can attempt initiatives to “deliver, deliver, deliver” to the British people. Peter Mandelson is stating the exceptionally obvious when he warns Sir Keir Starmer that he cannot “afford to sit back and let events take their course”. Still, just for a moment, let us consider how prettily Labour is sitting at this mid-point of a putative five-year parliament.
First there are the opinion polls – bound to change of course, only a snapshot, just a bit of fun. But the Labour Party has been ahead of the Tories all year, ever since Boris Johnson lost the confidence of the nation over lockdown parties. At the end of last week, Electoral Calculus’s poll of polls had the Conservatives on 31.4% and Labour on 41.7%. Their algorithms translate this into a Labour overall majority if there was a general election now, they give Labour 333 MPs, Conservatives 222, Lib Dems 19, SNP 51. Britain Elects for the New Statesman finds a more generous split 340/206 – which a working majority for Sir Keir Starmer of around 30.
This pretty much conforms with the first poll of the conference season by IPSOS: Labour 40%, Conservatives 32%, LibDems 9%, Reform 3%. Labour’s task is tougher than it looks. The 10+% uniform swing required for the slimmest overall majority would be record breaking surpassing Tony Blair’s performance in 1997. On the other hand 3%, to deprive the Tories of their majority, or 7%, for Labour to become the largest party, are both compatible with current poll standings. If Labour is the largest party, it seems certain that it would form a minority government, since 2010-2015 has rendered the idea of coalition toxic to all parties. Labour could well end up in power in a hung parliament even if the Conservatives have slightly more MPs because the Tories have alienated all potential political partners.
The Monarchy inevitably took attention away from Truss’s first few days as Prime Minister. She will be hoping for a bounce from a proper launch in Birmingham. The danger for her hopes is that the public has already tuned out from this government. The country may be as one of those “sea-change moments”, described by Jim Callaghan before he lost the 1979 election. At political turning points, the environs of Westminster are usually electric with excitement. But, except for reporters trying to make the best of the story, the streets were a hive of indifference. No one bothered to turn up to celebrate or protest at Liz Truss’s ascension to Number Ten.
Given these cheering prospects, it is surprising how glum many Labour activists are. New Labour veterans grumble that “Keir should be twenty points ahead at this stage”. Their dissatisfaction stems from the knowledge that Starmer is not going to revive the old religion of full-blown “Blairism”. Now that the well-intentioned Sir Tony is reportedly “being helpful” to the government over the Northern Irish protocol, they can surely forget about further overtures in their direction in the partisan atmosphere conference week
Starmer’s parliamentary career post-dates Blair’s exit by five years. His era has been defined by dealing with the Corbynite left and the Brexiteering Conservative Party. To his credit, he has managed to synthesise a Labour shadow cabinet which can stretch from Angela Rayner to Pat McFadden and Rachel Reeves. Conversely the Conservative cabinet has got narrower and narrower, drawing on an ever-shallower pool of talent as a result of the purges which followed three changes of leader. According to Sam Coates of Sky News, Liz Truss sacked Grant Shapps because he had not backed her even though she told him that he was an excellent minister and communicator of the government’s intentions.
Pound for pound in terms of competence Labour’s team look at least a match for the cabinet. IPSOS puts Starmer ahead of Truss as “most capable Prime Minister”. Labour is also ahead on setting the right level of taxation, levelling up, improving the NHS and protecting the environment. With their supersized “mini-budget” on Friday Liz Truss and her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng staked billions more borrowing on the few areas where they are already ahead in surveys “reducing the cost of living”, “growing the economy” and, albeit very narrowly, “managing inflation”.
In his foreword to a Labour in Communications report Lord Mandelson warns “The Tories will try to mount a post-truth campaign – one that pretends that the previous decade of austerity, division and chaos has not happened.” Truss is certainly attempting to relaunch what some of her allies are calling “a new government” even though the Conservatives have been in government continuously for the past twelve years.
Labour now has the chance to target both the Tories record of the past ten years and Truss’s counter proposals. There is plenty for shadow ministers to get their teeth into.
The government’s overriding priority is a return to the annual 2.5% growth rate of the Blair years. Yet it has evaded official forecasts and is unable to say when it expects that target to be hit, let alone when ordinary citizens will feel the benefits. The foreign and domestic markets, many economists and the Bank of England are uncertain that unprecedented levels of borrowing to boost the economy will keep down inflation or rescue sinking sterling. Regressive tax handouts which disproportionately benefit the better off and big business are certainly a major political gamble when the UK economy is heading into recession and the government urges wage restraint. Lifting the cap on banker’s bonuses is unlikely to help re-elect MPs in the Red Wall who got to parliament on Boris Johnson’s promise of levelling up.
The Conservatives have indulged in the sugar rushes of Johnson’s premiership and this summer’s tummy-tickling leadership contest. They’ve ended up wanting to abolish sugar taxes and start fracking – not ideas which many Conservative MPs, including the Chancellor it seems, came into politics to implement. Media eyes and ears will be trained for disrespect when, on Sir Keir’s orders, the national anthem is sung at conference in tribute to the late Queen and new King. The Conservative party today is locked in a much deeper internecine cultural civil war than their opponents. They are led by a Prime Minister who borrows the clothes of Mrs Thatcher while making a mockery of her prudent economic principles.
Truss matches Starmer in lack of charisma. Unlike him, she says boldly that she does not mind if she’s unpopular. She was not making a prediction but, as we columnists like to say, you never know.
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