The truth is migration remains unfixable without Europe fortifying the Med

This is Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, exclusively for Reaction subscribers.

The local press in Italy has described what unfolded on the island of Lampedusa this week as being a “total collapse.” In just two days, around 7000 migrants landed and the migration system fell apart. The reception centre is built to house only 400 souls. Understandably, the authorities could not cope. Police clashed with migrants. There were appeals for help but from the rest of Europe there is little chance of anything much changing because the nation states are divided on what to do. Central and eastern European states fear being asked to settle annual quotas of migrants. France and Italy are less than completely aligned on how to police the Mediterranean, which is the frontline with many migrants in search of work, welfare and opportunity crossing from north Africa.

In this context, with epic flows of people involving tens of millions migrants in the next decade or so, the row in Britain this week and the solutions mentioned look puny.

Labour says it will do a special deal with the EU, perhaps taking a certain number in return for cooperation in sending back some of those who have crossed in small boats. Opinions will be mixed in Europe on whether such a deal is doable post-Brexit, although it would surely involve the UK making an annual payment, because the saving on housing migrants as now could be large.

The Tories, way behind in the polls, spot an opportunity in the Labour plan. Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to sign an immigration deal with the EU, they say. It’s an outrage, a betrayal of Brexit, and so on.

The truth beyond all the general election pontificating and point scoring is that none of it, none of it at all, will work.

The small boats crisis is a symptom of a much bigger crisis that is only going to get worse as the populations of African states grow and tens of millions more want to head north.

Only fortifying and policing the Mediterranean, and combining to break the smugglers gangs in North Africa, and helping governments on the ground, is going to slow or stop the flow.

Much of the British debate is conducted in fantasy terms. The Royal Navy should do its job and, it is said by the GB News tendency, turn back the boats. How? Once they have tipped over or blocked the boats they take them back to France and do what exactly? Dock and unload? How? The French will just watch? Drop the migrants back on the beaches? It is a position that is clearly impractical after just a few seconds of thought.

What instead? There is only one plausible approach. If the people smugglers are disrupted at source, by Italian, British, French combined operations, with navies and police forces in the Med trying to catch what gets through and puts to sea, only then do we stand a chance of sending the message that Europe – EU and non-EU – takes its external border seriously.

This is not necessarily an argument for the European Union. It has not been much good at dealing with the problem so far. The impetus will come from individual states such as Italy, France and non-EU UK, all working in cooperation with the EU.

The rhetoric on this is problematic, obviously. The phrase “fortress Europe” has unfortunate Second World War connections and the hard-right has co-opted it in recent years to suggest Europe should guard its borders military-style. Fine, if that term is to be avoided,  we are going to need better language to describe the practical steps required to tackle a problem that could upend our societies and transform politics.

What if Gavin Newsom says no?

I’ve mentioned before here the idea that Gavin Newsom, governor of California, could be the Democrat nominee for President if Joe Biden’s party says enough is enough.

The chatter is that Democrat donors have identified Newsom – 55 year-old, relatively moderate, handsome – as a replacement for Biden. The President’s recent performances have been, to put it politely, suboptimal. And there is still more than a year to go until election day 2024. If there is a medical deterioration, it becomes ever more likely they have to make a switch.

It is vital, from the perspective of worried Dems, that they avoid an open primary. All manner of far-left maniacs could make a run. One might win the nomination, gifting the presidency to Trump. What is mooted is a brokered convention, after Biden pulling out next summer.

Newsom denies he is ready to run. He would say that, wouldn’t he? Or is he telling the truth?

The obvious charge against Newsom is that he’s from the wrong state, progressive California, with little appeal or name recognition in Ohio or Florida. And look, say his critics, at the condition of crime and addiction addled San Francisco, where he used to be mayor.

The Los Angeles Times has come up with a more original and compelling reason it can’t be Newsom.

George Skelton has covered politics for six decades. His column on Californian politics has been running since 1993.

In his latest column in the LAT, he explains that while Newsom is a sharp performer in apparently unscripted exchanges and on broadcast media, he struggles badly with prepared remarks. Each such speech takes many hours of preparation so he can learn the cues. He has acknowledged that dyslexia makes big speeches very difficult. Think how that complicates a presidency, when so much of it on the move is spent delivering keynote remarks or formal speeches, to say nothing of the State of the Union address.

Skelton is not – repeat not – saying dyslexia disqualifies Newsom. But it means, Skelton suggests, that the governor approaches the prospect of the presidency with some trepidation. Perhaps Newsom is telling the truth when he says he won’t do it.

If not Newsom, then who? The Democrats surely cannot run Kamala Harris, because of her terrible unpopularity.

Michelle Obama? The idea is mentioned from time to time, but greeted with derision. She hates politics, it is said.

If Newsom won’t do it there is not at this stage a queue of people wanting to fight Donald Trump in what will be the nastiest election campaign in living memory. 

It is an incredible set of circumstances, at which friends of America can only marvel. The wealthiest, most innovative, culturally dominant, militarily important  nation on earth has no end of talent in its midst yet it is struggling to find someone who can be a sensible leader.

EU moves against China

The bosses of several of Europe’s biggest car firms have been doing something transgressive in recent months, something almost shocking in this age of compulsory compliance according to fantastical notions. What have these executives done that was so outlandish? They have told the truth about the madness of Europe deindustrialising itself, punishing its own car industries and leaving the way open for the continent to be flooded with cheap Chinese EVs, electric vehicles.

The boss of BMW was only the latest to speak out. Late last year, Carlos Tavares, chief executive of the Citroën and Vauxhall car giant Stellantis, described “naive and dogmatic” green laws in Europe that would gift China a competitive advantage.

Not all car companies agree. Some like their joint venture deals in China and want nothing to disturb them.

The EU intervened this week, announcing it will begin an investigation into Chinese subsidies on their EVs. China is furious.

There is a free market critique to be made of the move. Putting up new tariff barriers will increase costs. Shouldn’t European politicians be reducing regulation to make European industry more efficient? Perhaps, but not really in this case. The Chinese Communist Party is not interested in a level playing field or economic freedom. It means to crush and dominate its trading and military rivals. The EU seems to be waking up to what the US understood some time ago about China.

Where is Britain on all this with China trying to spy its way round Westminster? That’s one for another edition of this newsletter.

Love Lyon

A quick word on Lyon, where we spent a few days this week.

Reaction subscribers are a sophisticated bunch, so many of you will have stayed in Lyon. I’m among those who have always sailed through the city on the train on the way south, or gone round it on the autoroute, getting to Provence.

This British attitude – nice place Lyon, must visit it some day, but not this year when we’re in such a hurry to get south, again – probably suits the good people of Lyon very well. The place gets a few tourists but not so many that it ruins the place. It oozes elegance and civility.

A recommendation, via friends with friends in Lyon, took us to the famous Brasserie Georges, a 19th century original that somehow survived the assault of town planners post-War who drove motorways close to the centre. Thank goodness they left the rest of the city alone.

The view was irrelevant at Brasserie Georges, where for little more than the price of a trip to Pizza Express in Britain we ate and drank perfection.

The Brotteaux neighbourhood we stayed in was a thing of wonder. On the three blocks next to our Airbnb flat I counted four boulangeries, three fromagerie shrines to cheese, at least twenty restaurants, several high-end cocktail bars, three wine merchants and at least four patisserie places selling dangerously good stuff. Oh, and there are some excellent museums.

Visit Lyon, but let’s keep it between ourselves.

What I’m reading

Isabel Colegate – author of the magical Orlando King – died earlier this year. The Blackmailer is one of her novels I’d missed. Starting it now and turning off for a few days.

What I’m watching

The rugby world cup, mostly with French commentary because I’m in France. This gives the games a dreamy quality. The commentators burble on at pace and I understand only one word in ten. That way a viewer can concentrate on becoming immersed in the flow of the game.

We also stumbled upon Class Act, the Bernard Tapie biopic on Netflix. Tapie was one of the quintessential French figures of his era – a sometime pop singer and a deal-making entrepreneur with a relaxed approach to the rules. His foray into football as president of Olympique de Marseille was spectacularly successful. They won the Champions League. And there was a spell in prison for Tapie. Everyone, apart from some of those he did business with, paid tribute when he died in 2021. Including the President of the Republic. What a French life.