Donald Trump’s electoral triumph and his continuing adulation of Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin, has been greeted in Ukraine with as much foreboding as it was probably with smug joy in the Kremlin.
His declarations since he became president-elect have only increased fears in Ukraine that Putin will believe he can do as he pleases with Ukraine and other parts of the former Soviet empire, whose disintegration he has publicly lamented.
Trump has refused to condemn Putin despite overwhelming evidence he ordered cyber espionage to meddle in the presidential election. The incoming president has taken his time denouncing Russia for its murderous actions in Syria and seems unconcerned by the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, which sparked a conflict that continues today.
Intense fighting raged in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region until a fragile ceasefire in the summer of 2015. Since then regular Russian forces and Kremlin-sponsored “rebels” have been hemmed in the occupied enclave. The war has caused some 10,000 Ukrainian military and civilian deaths. Small daily clashes increase the death toll.
The conflict hinders Ukraine’s desire for pro-western integration and normal economic development. That suits Putin. However, Ukraine’s very sovereign existence is a massive, daily insult to Putin. He needs a broken, submissive Ukraine to achieve his plans to recreate a new Russian empire on the old Soviet space.
The US has refused to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons. But Washington led the way for US and European economic sanctions against Moscow, which combined with falling oil prices sapped Moscow’s finances and have deterred Putin from all-out war in Ukraine.
Trump may lift sanctions, increasing Putin’s capacity to reignite war in Ukraine and try to completely eradicate her independence.
From Putin’s perspective he’s seen violence by him go unpunished in Syria where his forces have slaughtered hundreds of thousands of civilians, including children, and bombed schools and hospitals.
Many in Ukraine fear part of the Russian operation in Syria was intended to acclimatize Russian pilots to the prospect of bombing civilians far closer to home, in Ukraine.
When Putin became president he was mainly interested in looting Russia. But after amassing an estimated $40-120 billion he worked to divert his compatriots’ attention from his criminality by stirring nationalistic passions and creating an external enemy: Ukraine.
Unbridled power for long periods (17 years in Putin’s case) often produces largely adverse, psychological changes. A dictator who has scared of or killed any who disagree with him has nobody that dares to keep him on an even keel. He can tend to go bonkers.
Perhaps Putin’s mission to rebuild a Russian empire is now more than a fig leaf to cover his raiding activities. He seems to revel, Stalin-like, in “victories” achieved at huge cost in bloodshed. Putin would likely actually prefer to take control of Ukraine via a bloodbath to punish those who have defied him. Also to impress his chauvinist supporters whose approval rating for Putin soars, if Russian polls are believed, whenever he kills Syrians and Ukrainians thereby proving Russia is becoming “great” again.
Trump’s election victory is the latest development encouraging Putin the cards are falling his way. Putin-friendly leaders have also come to power in Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. More cheering news may be on the way after French and German elections this year.
If Moscow invades openly using its air and rocket forces Ukraine will be fighting for survival. But it won’t be a battle, as now hundreds of miles east of the EU’s borders in distant Donbas. It will be right up to and probably beyond that border.
Once serious conflicts get going they’re utterly unpredictable. Nobody knows what will happen, but having spent a lot of time in the front lines with Ukrainian soldiers I do know that Ukraine wouldn’t be a pushover.
I don’t have any reason to believe that the Ukrainian government would consider using any particular methods. But battle-hardened veterans and others mention desperate options.
Ukraine possessed the world’s third largest nuclear weapons inventory after the disintegration of the USSR. Only the US and Russia had more warheads. Ukraine gave up its nukes in return for security and sovereignty assurances by the US, UK and Russia that turned out to be hollow in the face of Russian aggression.
But Ukraine continues manufacturing the powerful rockets that could deliver warheads and presently launch satellites. Moscow and St Petersburg are within range. Ukraine possesses “dirty bomb” ingredients.
If Russian forces occupy part or all of Ukraine there are plans for prolonged guerrilla warfare, something Ukrainians historically excel at. Russian gas pipelines, which provide Russia’s main income stream, straddle Ukraine and would present an easy target.
The number of Ukrainians fleeing westwards would dwarf the influx of Syrian refugees into western Europe over the past couple of years.
Any conflict would be difficult, probably impossible, to prevent from spilling over into neighbouring EU countries and dragging in other European states. The Baltic countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Lithuania believe they would be next after Ukraine on Putin’s hit list. It’s always preferable to conduct your own defence on another’s territory.
Without an explicit declaration by Trump that he will penalize further Russian aggression, the risk of a conflict in Ukraine that could spiral out of control looms closer.
It may already be too late. Modern European history is low on dictators who, once bent on aggressively reshaping the world in their image, voluntarily abandon their mission. And Putin seems to have acquired a taste for inflicting death and misery.
