The formation of the Independent Group is one of the most fascinating political developments of recent times and it could be the first cracks of the British Party-political system before a major rupture in the future. Will the Independent Group finally break the dominance of the old parties and become a British En Marche?
It seems unlikely that the Independent Group will have the same rapid rise and astonishing success as En Marche. It could however easily prevent Corbyn and his mob getting into Downing Street while giving both parties a bloody nose and exerting some influence over the next government. This wouldn’t be a bad first step for a fledgling political movement in a system that works against new parties.
The impact it makes on the Conservative Party will entirely depend on how the Party responds to the insurgency. The first step, Theresa May’s letter, was sensible and struck exactly the right tone, one of regret and gentle rebuttal. This was in stark contrast to the irritable Corbyn and the betrayal narrative of his fanatical supporters. How it responds in the medium term will determine whether there are more Tory defections, or whether this becomes mainly a split on the Left.
Conservatives have long been rubbing their hands together with glee at the prospect of the Labour Party tearing itself apart as the Corbynites seek ideological purity. Yet here we are, Conservative associations are looking to deselect MPs due to their views on Brexit, hard right groups are trying to infiltrate the Party, the ERG is an English nationalist Party within, and all leadership candidates are playing the populist to appeal to a narrow base of members.
It was over the top for Anna Soubry to say that the Party is run by the hard-right from ‘top to toe’, but Brexit is becoming all-consuming and the internal coalitions of the Party are fraying.
The Conservative Party must shake itself out of its Brexit mania and regenerate itself. For this to happen, the first step is for the ERG hardliners to see sense and accept a compromise on the Withdrawal Agreement. Accept an amended Political Declaration and further assurances, bank them and move on. If they do this, they will have achieved a political objective many of them have obsessed over for years, probably never being sure it would ever happen.
Brexiteers have become radicalised since the referendum and now denounce many moderate positions they previously endorsed as a ‘betrayal’. If they continue to push for a full kamikaze WTO crash out, there will be more defections. At least four more Tories are rumoured to be ready to join The Independent Group, and many others are prepared to do anything they can to block ‘no deal’.
I don’t hold out much hope of this happening, but the ERG needs to pause and think. Do they want to compromise, get Brexit done and move on? Or would they rather risk Brexit being delayed (and who knows where that could end up), cause further splits in their Party and potentially destabilise the government and harm its future electoral chances?
The facts of the numbers in parliament, and the facts of economic necessity and political reality, mean that the UK and the EU will have a very close and integrated partnership after Brexit. This will likely be in the form of an Association Agreement. If the ERG fights this all the way, the Conservatives will get bogged down in trench warfare and won’t be able to pursue a domestic agenda.
Becoming Singapore on Thames or the 51st state is not going to happen but forging a new relationship with the EU from the outside was the stuff of Eurosceptic fantasy for decades, they should look to shape it as much as they can while accepting the future framework will be another compromise deal between a variety of desired outcomes and realities. No one will get everything they want.
Carrying on the Brexit wars into the future framework negotiations will be political disastrous, terrible for the country and likely lead to bad outcomes in the negotiations. If the Conservative can turn down the political heat, the salience of Brexit will decline amongst the media and the public. If they can avoid a media circus over every twist and turn of the trade talks, the Conservatives can become more than the ‘Brexit Party’ and begin addressing the UK’s many needs.
The pro-Remain trio Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen resigned from the Conservative Party because they believe the Party is “in the grip” of the Democratic Unionist Party and the European Research Group over Brexit and that Brexit has “redefined the Conservative Party – undoing all the efforts to modernise it”.
It’s tempting to dismiss the concerns of three MPs who have been opposing many of their Party’s policies for years now. Indeed, many Conservative supporters have taken to social media to basically say ‘good riddance’. This is a mistake. It’s a time for reflection, not celebration. A combination of Brexit madness and the leadership of Theresa May has led the Conservative Party astray.
In 2015 an election was won by campaigning on the economy; now the Conservatives are presiding over years of uncertainty while pursuing a policy of leaving a free trade area of 500 million consumers. A significant element of the Party call for a ‘no deal’ Brexit, severing trade treaties with all our partners. Theresa May’s instincts on business are closer to Ed Miliband than Cameron or Osborne. This no longer looks like a pro-business, economically sensible Party. A key strength has become a weakness.
Theresa May opted instead to reject the policies and philosophy that had won her predecessor a majority just two years earlier and has replaced Liberal Conservatism with a parochial social vision. She is the pioneer of the ‘hostile environment’, the ‘go home’ vans and the crusade to end free movement at all costs. The treatment of EU nationals under her watch has been an utter disgrace and the Windrush scandal has only compounded the stains on the UK’s reputation and retoxified the Conservative Party.
Get over the line with Brexit and oust Theresa May. The new leader will doubtless throw some red meat to the membership during the leadership campaign, but on victory they must reach out to the whole Party. If they set out a positive agenda based on a pro-business, pro-economy, socially liberal position, it may be possible to unify and move on from the current malaise.
It’s essential to remember that despite being in government for eight years, the Conservative Party remains in a weak position. The election of 2015 was the first majority it won since 1992, and it hasn’t won a strong one since 1987. A combination of the modernisation programme and a degree of economic and social liberalism was the platform for its resurgence. The same approach would make mincemeat of Corbynism in an election.
The emergence of a new political movement can be an opportunity or a threat, the choice is clear. By delivering an orderly secession from the EU, reunifying and adopting a positive agenda for economic growth and political and social reform the Party can exploit a divided Left and be in power for a decade or more, reforming the country as a new social democratic Party emerges to fight Labour to the death. The alternative is to descend into a squabbling rabble over Brexit and allow the internal coalitions to divide into separate tribes that tear the Party apart until it too splits.
