The Scots are absolutely furious. Scotland voted to stay in the EU, but as part of the UK (as confirmed by the 55-45 Unionist win in 2014) it is lumbered with Brexit.
You idiots, is how one pro-UK friend answered the phone to me earlier today when I phoned for a chat. The You was those in England who voted for Britain to leave the EU. Another friend said that he cannot face the two year campaign that the SNP will now engage in as its favoured alternative to actually doing anything meaningful with the powers it has over education, health and the Scottish economy.
The second independence referendum campaign starts here, was the view of the Spectator’s Alex Massie. The view seems to be that Nicola Sturgeon is now raring and ready to go for another referendum on Scottish separation that it is assumed she will win. She put on her best “this is serious” face for her statement at a press conference today, and said she is moving to get the legislation ready for a vote.
I’m not in Scotland so this carries a health warning. I’m sure a great many people are angry. Being angry is one of the main political pursuits north of the border, and now south of the border too thanks to the EU referendum.
But there are good reasons to be wary of the Nationalist hype. Although Sturgeon is supreme, party management in the SNP is not quite as straightforward as it looks. The activists want a referendum, of course. Yet there is no guarantee that the SNP will hold it, let alone win it.
Think of the SNP offer in an independence referendum:
1) Put up a proper border with England where 90% of Scotland’s exports go.
2) Join the euro.
3) The oil price
Yes, many voters are angry now, but Sturgeon will be wary of holding such a vote because she could lose. Expect her instead to push for further powers for the Scottish Parliament on taxation etc. A constitutional rethink under a new Tory Prime Minister is perfectly possible, with a federalised UK and proper recognition for England emerging. Get ready for UK-wide ultra devo max.
