Amid all the turmoil and controversy surrounding Europe, from Brexit to the future direction of the EU, one view alone commands universal assent: that Germany is pivotal to the continent’s stability. As the largest European economy and the state with the biggest population in the European Union, non-military German hegemony remains a geopolitical axiom. But the time has come when the previously unthinkable question has to be asked: can the nation so long seen as the anchor of Europe still be regarded as intrinsically stable?
Since 2005, Germany has been synonymous with Angela Merkel, whose nickname Mutti (“Mummy”) supposedly advertises the reassurance Germans feel in living under her governance. As a PR exercise it is brilliant; unfortunately, the political reality does not support the mythology. Objectively appraised, Merkel can be identified as one of the least stable politicians in Europe and that inconsistency is reflected in her legacy, a Germany whose future is confused and uncertain.
Angela Merkel, hyped as a pillar of European stability, has behaved with monumental irresponsibility. After winning the German elections in September 2013 on her party’s traditional slogan “No experiments”, in mid-2015 she arbitrarily invited unlimited numbers of migrants into Germany, precipitating a major European migration crisis. Not even the mercurial Emmanuel Macron has committed an imprudence on such a scale.
Considering the timing, the fact that immigration was second only to sovereignty as a Brexit referendum concern and the relatively narrow 4 per cent majority in favour of leaving the EU, it is arguable that Merkel drove Britain out of the European Union. Similarly, her alienation of Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia over migrant quotas solidified the Visegrad Group as a permanent fault line within the EU. Her policy likewise put the Freedom Party into coalition in Austria and brought electoral success to the AfD. Own goals do not come any more damning than that.
Now she has botched her own succession, with the uninspiring Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer removing herself and the emergence of Armin Laschet as the new leader of the CDU and pretender to the throne. It is perplexing that this deeply troubling development has not had more attention outside Germany.
Laschet is interested in conspiracy theories. He has strange ideas about the rise of ISIS and the notion that the Trump administration secretly supported ISIS (a notion at which even Nancy Pelosi might baulk). He disbelieved initially that Russia was responsible for the Skripal poisonings in Salisbury. In his regional satrapy he championed deals with China. He champions Nordstream 2, the Russian gas pipeline, and closer relations with Putin, Laschet is also an aggressive EU integrationist who supports the creation of Eurobonds. None of this is reassuring.
The German economy has been hit hard by Covid, but since every other country in Europe has also suffered, it retains its leading status, despite shrinking by 5 per cent last year. The predictions for France are a drop of GDP by 9.3 per cent, for Italy 9 per cent and for Spain 11.1 per cent. Angela Merkel has continued to do trade deals with China and her successors may continue that policy. Merkel told the new US president this week: “Don’t think that from tomorrow there will only be harmony between us.” She remained defiantly in favour of Nordstream 2, but took refuge in her usual fudge, suggesting a wide-ranging discussion with America about energy trade with Russia.
Despite early plaudits, Germany’s response to the pandemic more recently has been inadequate. It retains leadership of the EU simply by virtue of its economic success, founded on a strong manufacturing base, large exports and limited imports, but it remains discreetly Bismarckian, with a fondness for Zollverein-style economics: the EU is tailor-made for German exploitation, Berlin saw Brussels coming.
But its energy dependence on Russia and its (again Bismarckian) preference for trade over morality in its relations with China are vulnerabilities that are likely to be challenged in the post-Merkel era. There is a destabilizing future awaiting Germany, as Angela Merkel’s real legacy of botched policies becomes exposed. The situation is worrying. Laschet would make it worse. He is the wrong choice for Germany and the West.