Dominic Raab has admitted the UK government’s analysis was that Afghanistan was “unlikely” to fall to the Taliban until 2022. The Foreign Secretary told the Commons foreign affairs select committee: “The central assessment that we were operating to, and it was certainly backed up by the JIC (joint intelligence committee) and the military, is that the most likely, the central proposition, was that given the troop withdrawal by the end of August, you’d see a steady deterioration from that point and it was unlikely Kabul would fall this year.”