Usually, we find elections exciting, setting pulses racing, but this one – announced suddenly by Rishi Sunak in the pouring rain outside No.10 Downing Street – is somehow hard to summon enthusiasm for.
The next few days will see both the Conservatives and Labour set out how they will fight the election. Judging by the launch speeches, Sir Keir Starmer will have the stronger offering.
The Conservatives will frame the world as a dark and uncertain place, with geopolitical and economic instability lurking. Only they have a plan for the future. Voters should vote to not take a risk, and instead back what they know. The problem for the Conservatives is that, despite Sunak’s own moderation, they have done anything but offer voters stability and certainty.
Labour will want this to be a referendum on 14 years of Tory rule. Insisting they can be the change voters want by ending the chaos of the last few years and putting the country’s interest first. Sir Keir is not a compelling politician, but what he said about service and putting working people first at least made sense.
Although we were proponents of an early election late last year, and we have been proven partly right, we take no satisfaction in that.
The first reason for that sense of shoulder-shrugging is the timing and manner of the announcement. Watching the Prime Minister getting soaked for the TV cameras we cannot help feeling this has not been thought through and it would be better for the country to have an interest rate cut in the bag before subjecting the economy to another bout of uncertainty. He is not an intuitive politician.
After all the travails of the last few years, many people are going to have their economic plans thrown awry, again, by politics. Things tend to stall during an election campaign. There is nothing to stop the Bank of England cutting interest rates, but this seems very unlikely.
The second reason for a feeling of ennui is that the result is apparently a forgone conclusion: a Labour victory. It is true that governments which are far behind in the polls (see below) can usually expect them to close during a campaign, mostly because voters have to take an actual decision rather than simply let off steam about the state of the nation. But a Labour lead of 21 per cent really seems insurmountable, given the relative efficiency of the two machines. Despite the complete lack of decent policies and somewhat boring positioning, there is a discipline and hunger to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party entirely lacking from the Conservatives.
The third reason to be unimpressed is the suspicion that we are not being told the truth. Rishi Sunak was hitherto adamant there would be no election until the Autumn. This latest evasion joins a long list, of which the most egregious is that the state of the economy is such that we can afford to abolish National Insurance, increase defence spending or gallop into an election. Sir Keir’s own evasiveness on policy is not much better.
About the best which can be said is that the political turmoil of the last eight years will presumably be over by the summer, in time for the Mansion House speech on 11Â July. Voters and investors alike may give that a qualified welcome.
George Trefgarne is CEO of Boscobel and Partners, an independent communications and political consultancy.
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