My journey to work on Monday morning offered a stark reminder as to why Corbyn’s Labour Party remains popular. I arrived to work late, thanks to two consecutive trains to Euston being cancelled and the third delayed. I spent the journey reading about the mess the government is making of the Brexit negotiations and in the 30 second walk from Tottenham Court Road Station to the office, I was struck by the tragic increase in rough sleeping on London’s streets. The government is failing badly.
The Conservative Party needs to act. My despair was further heightened upon news yesterday that the Tories have ditched discussing the “burning injustices” May spoke of in her first address as Prime Minister. For many, this was the Prime Minister’s greatest moment in office so far, pledging to tackle the inequalities which disproportionately affect the poor, ethnic minorities and sufferers of mental illness. But her rhetoric has not been followed up with action. It is no wonder therefore, that voters now trust Labour not the Conservatives to resolve these issues. Left unaddressed, the “burning injustices” which the Prime Minister opted to launch her premiership on, will end up fatally scorching the Tories and firing Corbyn into Downing Street.
The Conservative Party urgently needs a coherent and deliverable social justice agenda. But the government is simply incapable of developing one because of the all-consuming mess it has created over Brexit. To resolve this, we need certainty and clarity regarding our departure from the European Union, which can only be achieved under a new leader.
May cannot fix this. Her Chequers plan seems a dead end. The next three to five months of talks, if we pursue our current path, look set to be messy and unfruitful. As the EU looks to extract more concessions, May cannot go much softer. Having burnt all bridges with the Brexiteers and consistently ruled out both membership of the EEA and customs union, she cannot agree to either without signing her own death warrant. Her only possible plan B is no deal, for which we are grossly underprepared and there is no majority for in Parliament. In essence, the government is en route for an almighty collision, the fall out of which is unclear. It’s time to change course.
The Tory party should move swiftly to remove May. In doing so, they would have the backing of both members and voters. Her polling is awful: Conservative Home published their latest survey of party members yesterday, which revealed that 45% want May to go immediately (double the number last month) and 81% want her gone before the next election. The Tory grassroots regard Chequers as a betrayal. The wider electorate isn’t too pleased either. A staggering 78% think the government is making a mess of Brexit and 65% expect her to bring back a bad deal for Britain. In short, they have tasted her Chequers fudge and spat it back out again. What’s more, the polls show little appetite for a no deal dog’s dinner either.
To break through the Brexit impasse, the party should unite around a new leader who commits to keeping Britain in the EEA. There is growing support for an EEA-style Brexit. Several Conservative MPs and pundits, Brexiteers amongst them, are now actively arguing for this option, at least as a temporary transition. The former Labour Foreign Secretary and Brexiteer Lord Owen is pushing the government to include in the Withdrawal Bill the option of continuing EEA membership in the event of no deal. There appears to be a growing consensus in Westminster which, with the correct leadership, could unite most of the country.
The EEA has many advantages. For a start, we would have formally left the EU. Britain will no longer be a part of the political structures and will regain autonomy over agriculture, fisheries and foreign and home affairs. Importantly, we could be outside the customs union too. There is also scope within the EEA to impose limits on free movement (as yesterday’s Home Affairs Committee report confirmed) and our budgetary contribution would be less than under our current terms of membership.
What’s more, opting for an EEA exit does not spell the end for the Canada plus deal which has always appeared the optimal end point for the UK. We could commit to a four-year time limit on EEA membership, ending in 2023. Meanwhile, the government can take the necessary steps to prepare for a third country relationship with the EU and negotiate the sort of free trade arrangement favoured by David Davis. The Conservative Party can then stand at the next general election having negotiated a deal with the EU which will come into effect in the next Parliament. Or having failed to reach an agreement, promise to trade under WTO terms once the EEA transition is over. In essence, the UK will have regained control over the negotiations, having currently sacrificed all control through Article 50 and a failure to prepare for no deal.
Who could provide the leadership for such a plan? To bring the ERG on board, it will probably have to be a Brexiteer whom they can trust. The move must be pitched as a way of rescuing Brexit, not thwarting it. My favoured candidate would be Gove. The hard Brexit faction on the Tory backbenchers and party members have resented his outspoken support for the Chequers proposals, but his commitment to Britain leaving the European Union is unquestionable. More importantly, he is an accomplished reformer brimming with ideas and drive.
With certainty over Brexit secured, the government can construct a credible reform agenda which tackles housing, transport and barriers to social mobility. Like the wildfires which have engulfed parts of Europe and America this summer, the “burning injustices” May spoke of cannot be extinguished overnight. However, they can be cooled and contained with competent leadership and targeted action.
The Conservative Party must realise that to provide the effective governance this country so desperately needs, a change of leadership and a clear way forward on Brexit is required. The alternative, a messy Brexit and a Corbyn government, will have cataclysmic consequences for our collective prosperity.
Start writing those letters…
