What looks like annihilation day is looming for the Conservative party. Almost 70 MPs have confirmed they are standing down at the next election, unwilling to fight the gargantuan uphill battle. Every week brings another scandal of sloppiness and sleaze, the latest being in the form of William Wragg falling into a honeytrap and bringing some people with him. 

So perhaps YouGov’s new poll for The Times showing that Reform is polling only four points behind the Tories is wholly unsurprising. Yet, imagine being told this was going to be the 2024 pre-election state of affairs back in 2019 after the resounding 86-seat majority. Are you mad?

The poll has Labour hitting highs of 45 per cent while the Tories languish in the doldrums at 19 per cent, with a jubilant Reform – despite the dead candidates – at a perky 15 per cent. The Lib Dems remain at 8 with the Greens on 7, neither of whom is likely to play any deciding role should a coalition be forced. 

Reform’s not-so-secret weapon, honorary party chairman Nigel Farage, has not yet decided what his role in the next election will be. He has been playing down the idea that he will stand as an MP, but he may go on the campaign trail, splitting the Tory vote down the middle and bigging up Richard Tice’s revolution. 

The fabled Labour super majority still looks like a solid bet at the bookies, so far. 

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