Another day in Brexitland, the parallel universe that is the Palace of Westminster, where dazed ministers, MPs and hacks like me spend largely futile hours on end wandering around asking each other what is happening. The real answer to the question – what is happening? – is “no-one knows.” The entire process has become simultaneously deeply confusing and extremely boring. Fast-moving and slow-moving, at the same time.
So, acknowledging that hardly anyone has the appetite for a lengthy report on the shambles, I thought I would simply offer several very brief snapshots of where I think it all stands. Think of it as a mini-article, a postcard from Brexitland.
1) Large parts of the ERG die hard group of Tory MPs are moving towards May’s deal, but tragically (hilariously even, depending on your sense of humour) they may be doing so too late. In the time since they last had a chance to vote for Brexit, via May’s deal, the DUP’s opposition appears to have hardened. The coalition to get the deal over the line always rested on the ERG and the DUP folding simultaneously, and twenty or so Labour people feeling reassured enough to pass the deal. It looks as tall an order as ever.
2) The die hards are split. Steve Baker is playing the role of martyr. That means around twenty being ready to vote against the deal. Others in the ERG have finally realised what people like me have been saying to them for months – take this deal or there is a high risk of Brexit being lost entirely. Take the imperfect deal, and fight about it later from outside the EU.
3) Labour rebels aren’t in a mood to come to the rescue. Those who want Brexit are hardly going to be encouraged by the Tory psychodrama to switch. Why join the losing side?
4) Some Tory Remainers are so emboldened by their taste of power via indicative votes that a few more may now even vote against the May deal, intoxicated as they are with the idea that ultra-soft Brexit is in store via a cross-party alliance.
5) In an emergency, parliament will vote to revoke – or revoke to reset as one Brexiteer describes it. This sounds extreme, but if they have to – if the EU botched a long extension for example – seven days out or so a largely Remain Commons will take the ultimate step. I do not know why some Brexiteers cannot see this. If it’s no deal or revoke, and May’s deal can’t get the numbers, MPs will vote to revoke Article 50. Die hards will then have years of fighting to look forward to. But they will have failed to get the UK out of the EU.
All in all, if you are a pro-Brexit Tory MP with a vote, vote for the deal. But you may have left it too late. Well done.
