The UK recession could be twice as severe as previously feared, driven by higher taxes, reduced government support, and a harsher global outlook, according to business consultancy EY.

In an updated forecast released today, analysts at EY’s Item Club predict that UK GDP will fall by 0.7% this year before growing by 1.9% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 – a downgrade from its October forecasts of -0.3%, 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively.

But while EY’s gloomier forecast has hogged headlines, it seems to be the exception rather than the rule.