In just over a month, the UK will have a new Prime Minister. The latest polling suggests that Liz Truss is on course to defeat Rishi Sunak and move into Number 10.
But what do we expect from the next occupant of No 10? Our most up-to-date polling at Ipsos reveals some interesting insight into what the public expect after an extraordinary few months which saw the ousting of Boris Johnson.
First, there is the question of character. Whilst some Conservative Party members appear unwilling to let Johnson go, this is not the case for most of the public. Our polling shows that 60% of Britons have an unfavourable view of Johnson and back in May just 9% told us the Prime Minister was ‘more honest than most politicians’.
In this context, it is no surprise that the public now see being ‘an honest person’ as the most important character trait in what makes a good Prime Minister. 68% consider this important, followed by 66% saying it is important that a Prime Minister understands the problems facing Britain. Beyond this, competency traits such as being ‘a strong leader’ (56%), ‘good in a crisis’ and ‘a capable leader’ both (54%) are also seen as important by a majority, as well as being ‘in touch with ordinary people’ (59%).
What of policy? The truth is the next Prime Minister faces a daunting task. Our latest Ipsos Political Pulse survey shows that 57% think the country is heading in the wrong direction with just 16% thinking things are heading in the right direction. These are the worst figures that we have seen on this metric since the 2019 General Election. Meanwhile, in June, 77% told our Ipsos Political Monitor they expected the economy to worsen in the next 12 months. The public remain divided over Brexit too, with 47% saying it has had a negative impact on the country but 45% saying it has either had a positive impact or made no difference.
These numbers suggest that arresting a sense of malaise amongst the public will be no easy task for the new Prime Minister. However, our research does give some indication as to where they could start. When we asked the public in mid-July what subjects they would like the Conservative leadership candidates to talk about, there were two that stood out overall: the rising cost of living (chosen by 58%) and public services such as the NHS and schools (42%).
The former will be no surprise to most. Polling constantly shows the rising cost of living as the number one issue on the mind of voters today. Indeed, our Ipsos Issues index has shown concern about inflation and rising prices at a 40-year high. Meanwhile, the struggles facing schools and hospitals are well known, as staffing problems and a devastating Covid backlog put Britain’s public services under immense strain. No surprise then that more than 7 in 10 tell us that waiting times for emergency care in the NHS are unacceptably long.
A further issue that is likely to be high up on the new Prime Minister’s list of priorities is that of immigration and border security. Whilst this subject is fifth overall on the list of issues the public want to hear more about from the Conservative leadership candidates, it ranks second amongst those voting Conservative in 2019. More than half of this group want to hear more on the candidates’ plans in this area (53%), second only to the rising cost of living (64%).
Delivery is key
Not delivering in some of these key areas could have profound political implications for the new Prime Minister. Ipsos polling, taken at the time of Johnson’s resignation, shows the public think Labour more likely to improve public services than a new Conservative government by a margin of 47% to 28% and more likely to reduce the cost of living by a margin of 35% to 23%. Meanwhile, past Ipsos polling has shown how 2019 Conservative voters disapprove of how the party has handled immigration. Failing to deliver on these issues will make it hard for the Conservatives to turn their current political fortunes around and keep their election-winning coalition of voters from 2019 together next time.
Perhaps the new Prime Minister will benefit politically if they are seen to overdeliver versus expectations, whilst offering a notable stylistic change to the Johnson government. However, the incoming administration will arrive behind in the polls, facing a daunting in-tray and significant public pessimism. Their political success will depend on their ability to turn things around in the short run-up to the next General Election. Time will tell if they can.
Keiran Pedley is Research Director of Public Affairs at Ipsos UK
