Only Iran can benefit from an Israel-Hezbollah war
The calculus in Tehran appears to have changed.
The calculus in Tehran appears to have changed.
Until recently both sides calibrated their firepower: enough to have an effect, not enough to spark an all-out war. This month, that has changed.
Hezbollah launched its biggest rocket attack into Israel today since the back-and-forth fire began in October.
Israelis are bracing themselves for an onslaught from Tehran. But there are powerful motivations for the Iranian regime to act with relative restraint.
In a few weeks, the IDF will have both economic and strategic incentives for turning north and facing down Hezbollah.
The prospect of regional escalation in the Middle East is looming large after the death of Wissam Hassan al Tawil in an apparent Israeli air strike.
Hassan Nasrallah’s broken silence adds another layer of complexity to an already intractable problem and raises the risks of escalation.
Compromise is not in the lexicon of those who believe they are carrying out God’s wishes.
Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah has, to date, not gone to war purely for the Palestinian cause. That could soon change.
Subscribe to Reaction and receive unlimited access to the site, our daily email with analysis every evening and invites to online events.
© Copyright 2024 Reaction Digital Media Limited – All Rights Reserved. Registered Company in England & Wales – Company Number: 10166531.