Donald Trump has proudly told an all-female audience at a town hall in Georgia that he is “the father of IVF”, as he strives to close the gender gap in an otherwise razor-tight election race.
While the impending US election is shaping up to be one of the closest contests in modern history, Donald Trump has a woman problem. Though, for that matter, Kamala Harris has one with men.
According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, 51% of male registered voters support Trump, and 43% support Harris. Among female registered voters, that is effectively reversed: 52% of female registered voters support Harris, while 43% support Trump.
Sarah Longwell, executive director of Republican Voters Against Trump, told the WSJ this week that 2024 is the most gendered election she has ever seen.
Bar Arizona, this pattern is coming to the fore in every key battleground state. In Georgia, for instance, Harris is enjoying a 12-point lead among women, while Trump boasts a 14-point lead among men.
Why would an endorsement of IVF help Trump to repair his deficit among female voters?
A new poll by NBC provides a clue. When those surveyed were asked if there was “any one issue so important that you would vote for or against a candidate solely on that basis”, the top answer – on 22 per cent – was “abortion”. Harris was given a 19-point lead on her perceived ability to handle this issue well.
Trump – who supports state abortion bans, albeit lukewarmly – knows that Harris’s vocal support for abortion rights is a major obstacle to him closing the gender gap. So loudly declaring his support for IVF is an attempt to stop her presenting as the only candidate advocating for any form of reproductive rights.
Back in February, Alabama’s state supreme court ruled that frozen embryos created through fertility treatment are “unborn children” and that a person could be held liable for accidentally destroying them. The controversial ruling opened up a new front in the battle over reproductive health. And IVF – like abortion – is supported by the majority of Americans.
As a result, Trump has made efforts to demonstrate his support for IVF, going even further than the Democrats in pledging to make the procedure free for all Americans.
Harris has reacted with furry to her opponents’ bold claim today. “Donald Trump called himself ‘the father of IVF.’ What is he talking about? His abortion bans have already jeopardised access to it in states across the country—and his own platform could end IVF altogether.”
Harris needn’t worry too much. It seems unlikely that Trump will steal too many of her voters by recasting himself as the “reproductive rights” candidate. The much bigger challenge for her will be to shore up support amongst men.
Her recent targeted ad – featuring a series of hyper-masculine men who “eat carburetors for breakfast” and are “man enough” to vote for a women – fell flat. Some critics even labelled it one of the cringiest political ads in US history.
But she is pressing on. On Monday, Harris rolled out an “opportunity agenda” for Black men, including business loans, job training and health initiatives and yesterday she did a interview with radio host Charlamagne tha God, who is especially popular amongst young men.
One statistic that could make the Harris campaign feel a little hopeful: in every US presidential election dating back to 1984, women have turned out to vote at slightly higher rates than men.
