You read it in Reaction first. Joe Biden will not be the Democratic candidate in the November 2024 presidential election.
The Washington Post, The New York Times, even The New Yorker are all spilling increasing gallons of eco-unfriendly ink in a lather of self-justification asserting he will. Is that an increasingly desperate cry of “wolf” I hear?
Here is what will happen. Nothing complex.
Donald Trump will maintain, or increase, his lead in the polls in critical swing states against Biden during the remainder of the primary season.
The justification for selecting Biden in 2020 – that he was the only candidate who could beat Trump (probably true) – will not only ring hollow but will seem fantastical by summer 2024.
The tables have turned. Biden has now become the only Democrat who Trump can beat. Except the hapless Vice President, “I’m ready to serve” Kamala Harris.
The question is, when will it be in the interests of Biden’s party, notoriously ruthless in such matters, to ask wife Jill to tell the poor old soul to hand over the car keys. This week’s memory debacles closed the argument about Biden’s fitness for office. He isn’t.
Primary season ends on 4 June 4. The Democratic convention will be held in Chicago between 19 and 22 August.
Biden has to hang on in there until close to the convention. If he doesn’t it would be difficult to deny the nomination to Harris.
At the current rate of decline in the President’s faculties – harrowing to watch – it seems almost inevitable a point will be reached by August when the pretence that he can credibly hold office for four more years will be threadbare.
He stands aside. Primary delegates to the convention are released from their Biden pledges. The Democrats hold an open convention in which Harris will be only one of many runners.
“Anyone but Kamala” will be the favoured candidate. “Anyone but Kamala” will run as “Anyone but Trump” in the November election – and pick up the keys to the White House in January.
Maybe I’m havering. So, what are the odds Biden will step down? I would have thought, maybe 20 -1 as it is not a scenario Democrats can canvass openly, or Republicans would find “helpful”. All a bit left field.
Actually, available odds are 5-2. So says Paddy Power. I’m not reckless Rishi, so I bet only 100 quid. Bye-bye Biden, Biden bye-bye. The punters have spoken.
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